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Even were condoms were used, if half of the trannies+Nacho were HIV+ then she'd have a 33% chance of being infected in this one shoot alone based on CDC estimates for condom reliability.

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I'm trying to do that the math here. How did you cum up with 33%? There's 1 Nacho and 15 Trannies. Total of 16 people. What condom failure rate for HIV transmission did you use? Give me the formula if you have to.

Show your work.
I've shown you mine.

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Oooo - that sounds like a fun game!

The formula was a 95% success rate taken eight times (she can't acquire HIV from the HIV- trannies so the odds are only from the "half" that are HIV+ in my example, or eight), 95% ^ 8.

Here's the CDC information I used: Table 5. There is a lot of stuff but I linked to the table of most interest.

Have2cit's page shows a 98% success rate. Which you believe if tricky. The 98% rate was published in 1992 and the 95% in 1999, yet both are rough estimates and may not be measuring exactly the same things. My gut feel is that 95% is too pessimistic but that's what I used above.

Even at a 98% success rate she runs a 15% chance in one shoot alone, assuming half the trannies are HIV+ and condoms are used.

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I am resisting the "22 year old Nerd" inside my "36 year old pervert" from launching into this thoroughly depressing topic, especially since fucking numerous trannies on film is not something anyone HAS to do....but I must contribute a couple minor tidbits.

15% is probably the worst case scenario for what we have here and the situation as described, but fuckin' JRV has a point that cant be ignored...when you consider plating Russian roulette with an 8 cyinder revolver is 12.5% that you will "lose your mind"

Unless you want to spend a lot of time running a fairly detailed/intricate statistical regression you will never really know the true probability of her getting HIV. There are a LOT of minor factors (which when combined constitute a SIGNIFICANT factor in itself) that come into play for any snapshot/moment in time to determine if someone would contract HIV from someone else ... to name a few, an HIV+ individual's viral count on that day, and his/her/"it's" immune function on that day; How much semen is ejaculated into the body, Ariana's own body chemistry, function and reaction at the time of exposure (if it occurs)...We can get ridiculous about it, but all these things (and more) factor in.

The bottom line...? It's called risk management, but in EA & Ariana's case, I think the point seems to be that she is managing the risk in the least way possible...like wearing a crash helmet and jumping off a 60 foot high tree. Wont help much but it might....