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Even were condoms were used, if half of the trannies+Nacho were HIV+ then she'd have a 33% chance of being infected in this one shoot alone based on CDC estimates for condom reliability.

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I'm trying to do that the math here. How did you cum up with 33%? There's 1 Nacho and 15 Trannies. Total of 16 people. What condom failure rate for HIV transmission did you use? Give me the formula if you have to.

Show your work.
I've shown you mine.

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Oooo - that sounds like a fun game!

The formula was a 95% success rate taken eight times (she can't acquire HIV from the HIV- trannies so the odds are only from the "half" that are HIV+ in my example, or eight), 95% ^ 8.

Here's the CDC information I used: Table 5. There is a lot of stuff but I linked to the table of most interest.

Have2cit's page shows a 98% success rate. Which you believe if tricky. The 98% rate was published in 1992 and the 95% in 1999, yet both are rough estimates and may not be measuring exactly the same things. My gut feel is that 95% is too pessimistic but that's what I used above.

Even at a 98% success rate she runs a 15% chance in one shoot alone, assuming half the trannies are HIV+ and condoms are used.