From: CNN World



Japan is abandoning its pacifist past for a hard-headed, proactive security policy which will see it more willing to deploy troops, but complicate northeast Asian security, according to a new study titled "Unsheathing the Samurai Sword".

"This shift is evolutionary, not revolutionary, but it is gaining momentum and represents a defining watershed in Japan's post war security policy," analyst Alan Dupont said in his report for the Sydney-based Lowy Institute for International Policy.

Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi has been whittling down constitutional restrictions on troop deployments, starting with 1990s peacekeeping missions and more recently sending troops to Afghanistan and Iraq, according to the report, released Thursday.

"Afghanistan gave Koizumi the opportunity to demonstrate that the era of checkbook diplomacy was finally over and that henceforth Japan would pull its weight militarily," Dupont said.

"Iraq was an even greater break with Japan's pacifist tradition. Iraq signaled that Japan had crossed a political Rubicon," he said.

Public opinion in Japan for overseas troop deployment was rising, said Dupont, citing 35 percent in favor of the Iraq deployment prior to Japanese soldiers landing and 53 percent after, and 61.3 percent after three Japanese were kidnapped. (Full story)

Koizumi, a close ally of U.S. President George W. Bush, is thought to be leaning toward extending the stay of some 550 Japanese troops in Samawa, southern Iraq, when the mandate for their non-combat mission expires on December 14. (Full story)

Japan's Peace Constitution, drafted by the United States and signed after World War II, allows Japan's Self Defense Force (SDF) to be sent to Iraq but limits it to "non-combat zones."

Dupont said there was a real possibility Japan's pacifist constitution would be revised by the end of this decade, accelerating the creation of a deployable defense force.

Japanese militarism
Japan's pursuit of more proactive security policy was a response to the more threatening and volatile global security environment, the report said.

"Japan is moving away from its pacifist past towards a more hard-headed and outward looking security posture characterized by a greater willingness to use its SDF in support of its foreign policy and defense interests," Dupont said.

Dupont warned Japan's growing assertiveness would cause tensions within the region, particularly with China, because of its "historical baggage in Asia where old memories of past Japanese militarism have not completely faded."

But there was little likelihood of a reversion to Japanese militarism due to Japan's ageing population, geo-strategic vulnerabilities, energy dependence and mature democracy, he said.

"There is no political constituency for transforming the SDF into the kind of expeditionary force that would be necessary to sustain a new Japanese hegemony in Asia," Dupont said.

While Japan was modernizing its armed forces, its defense spending was still well below its regional neighbors and allies.

Japan has capped defense spending at one percent of GDP, Dupont said, compared with 4.1 percent in China, 3.3 percent in the United States and 2.8 percent in South Korea.

"Japan's foreign policy and defense elites envisage playing a more constructive role in regional and global affairs, free of constitutional shackles," Dupont said.

"A more assertive and militarily capable Japan will complicate the strategic equation in northeast Asia, placing a premium on preventive diplomacy," he said.

"If Japan can strike the right balance between excessive timidity and unbridled nationalism in defense and foreign policy, then its own security will be enhanced in conjunction with its neighbors."