After he fled the country before sentencing, it stopped being about the rape victim. It was now a different case about him running from justice.
The rape case might still be tried - it was never finalized. But the victim is now a hostile witness and it's not clear what evidence they still have.
The victim's original statements aren't admissible unless there is a living witness left to testify under cross-examination as to what she said at the time. The prosecution could force the victim herself onto the stand but that's risky since she might shoot down their case.
The prosecutor who claimed he talked to the judge now says he lied about that. How much he lied, how often, and about what, is unclear. The judge is dead but at the time acknowledged "substantial misconduct" in the case at the time ... and the misconduct was never resolved because Polanski had fled.
BBC reported overnight that France is backing off insisting he be returned to France and that the Polish President has broken with their cabinet and opposes release. If France backs off I doubt the Swiss will let him go free. There is a US-Swiss extradition treaty and I doubt the Swiss will ignore it without France giving them cover.
The victim might not say anything against him anymore because maybe part of the settlement agreement was that she can't criticize him anymore. Her family was paid by Polanski. It was 30 years ago and the agreement might not apply anymore though.
She also says she forgives him. But how can she forgive him when he never once apologized and took responsibility for anything?
I don't understand why they would need a living witness when her testimony is on court records. It's not hearsay.
This has nothing to do with France or Poland. He was arrested in Switzerland for a crime committed in the United States. He's not a French or Polish diplomat or government official. So this has nothing to do with those countries and they should mind their own fucking business. They would be singing a different tune if we weren't extraditing someone who committed a crime in their country.