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After he fled the country before sentencing, it stopped being about the rape victim. It was now a different case about him running from justice.
The rape case might still be tried - it was never finalized. But the victim is now a hostile witness and it's not clear what evidence they still have.
The victim's original statements aren't admissible unless there is a living witness left to testify under cross-examination as to what she said at the time. The prosecution could force the victim herself onto the stand but that's risky since she might shoot down their case.
The prosecutor who claimed he talked to the judge now says he lied about that. How much he lied, how often, and about what, is unclear. The judge is dead but at the time acknowledged "substantial misconduct" in the case at the time ... and the misconduct was never resolved because Polanski had fled.
BBC reported overnight that France is backing off insisting he be returned to France and that the Polish President has broken with their cabinet and opposes release. If France backs off I doubt the Swiss will let him go free. There is a US-Swiss extradition treaty and I doubt the Swiss will ignore it without France giving them cover.
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"If they can't picture me with a knife, forcing them to strip in an alley, I don't want any part of it. It's humiliating." - windsock