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Exactly, while the media and the germophobics are screaming about the 300,000 cases of swine flu that are supposed to hit this year


The word "cases" means nothing by itself.

300,00 people _infected_ seems preposterously low.
If it fizzles then maybe only that many _visit their doctor_.
300,00 _hospitalized_ seems possible but high.
300,000 _deaths_ seems very unlikely this winter; maybe next winter.

The virus making the rounds now has not mutated much since spring so we know what to expect for the next few months.

It is highly infectious but the symptoms are very mild. The majority of victims won't even know they were infected, perhaps thinking it's a mild cold or allergies, unless they're tested for some reason (like a school where one kid gets really sick and is diagnosed with H1N1, then they test everyone else - of the 2,000 at WSU who have H1N1 I bet most never knew they had a flu until tested).

The virus could mutate into something more lethal by the end of winter, or by next winter - nobody knows. Or it could just as easily mutate into something not very infectious and just vanish like the Spanish influenza.

Just because it's easy to catch doesn't mean it's going to be a big deal when you do get it. CDC is worrying about what if the symptoms become severe while it is still very infectious. That may happen but not yet.

PS. The worst forms of Spanish influenza appeared the winter after the initial outbreaks, so CDC is not unreasonable to worry about it now or next winter - it's like flipping coins, the fact that the first round was mild doesn't mean the rest will be.
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