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IMO the five key "red" states where the polls close early are Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, and Ohio. Bush carried all five in 2004, and any Obama victories in these states spells major trouble for the GOP.

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He seems to have carried all of them, though even this last, I haven't seen anyone call North Carolina [last I saw Obama was up by ~12k with pretty much everything counted].

I have to admit being nervous about the election when McCain was leading Virgina for so long ... even though I new NoVa wasn't reporting yet, I was wasn't sure.

I was surprised to see some call PA so early. And when I saw a few call Ohio, I didn't give a shit about Virginia anymore and called it OVER.

The Math = Kerry states + Ohio = Obama WIN.




The state that surprised me the most was Indiana. I would have thought Missouri well before Indiana since its more Democrat in my mind. [Some still have Missouri undeclared, but last I saw even MSNBC had it for McCain].