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#363077 - 09/27/08 10:46 PM
Electoral Vote Projections
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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CNN:
New York Times:
Washington Post:
And, using CNN's Handy Dandy Generator...
Mine:
The three states I'm not certain about are Pennsylvania, Nevada and New Hampshire.
I'm giving PA to Obama, despite his poor showing in the primary, and despite the fact that I don't believe Gov. Ed Rendell and the Clinton/DLC wing are going to exert themselves too hard for Obama there.
New Hampshire and Nevada have large percentages of Independents (I think it's 40% and 20%, respectively.) In New Hampshire, these tend to like McCain (and helped him win both of his primaries.) In Nevada, they tended to support Perot in '92 (he got 26% of the vote.)
Assuming that Obama does win PA, McCain only needs one of the other two to win. Obama would need both.
Create Your Own. Click "Blank Slate" on the left.
Attachments
350501-Mine 9 27.jpg (10 downloads)
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#363078 - 09/30/08 05:56 AM
Re: Electoral Vote Projections
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Late entry:
Attachments
351144-elaborator.jpg (6 downloads)
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#363079 - 09/30/08 08:12 AM
Re: Electoral Vote Projections
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Registered Sex Offender
Registered: 07/09/06
Posts: 2362
Loc: St. Louis
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Colorado is going to Obama. The state used to be solid GOP until all the shithead Californians moved there in the early to mid 90's to escape the shitty California economy that their elected Democratic politicians created.
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"Offer them what they secretly want and they of course immediately become panic-stricken."
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#363080 - 09/30/08 09:03 AM
Re: Electoral Vote Projections
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Internet Tough Guy
Registered: 07/14/08
Posts: 787
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Quote:
Late entry:
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#363081 - 09/30/08 09:06 AM
Re: Electoral Vote Projections
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Quote:
Colorado is going to Obama. The state used to be solid GOP until all the shithead Californians moved there in the early to mid 90's to escape the shitty California economy that their elected Democratic politicians created.
I dunno, Nitne. Historically, Colorado has only gone Democratic three times in the last 60 years: 1948 ("Dewey Defeats Truman,") LBJ's 1964 landslide and 1992, when Ross Perot nabbed ~26 percent (!) of the vote in that State.
Then there's the demographics: The population is about 92% white (2005 estimate,) and about 65% identifying as "Christian." There's also many military installations in Colorado, including the Air Force Academy.
I think Obama has his work cut out for him here.
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#363082 - 09/30/08 09:56 AM
Re: Electoral Vote Projections
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Porn Jesus
Registered: 11/27/07
Posts: 4795
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I already voted, sent in my absentee ballot last week...
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#363083 - 09/30/08 10:11 AM
Re: Electoral Vote Projections
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Well, Ned, I think that gives you the right of first gripe. 
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#363084 - 09/30/08 10:18 AM
Re: Electoral Vote Projections
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Porn Jesus
Registered: 11/27/07
Posts: 4795
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^^^
I wish. With all the griping being done I probably have to wait in line.
Interestingly my Centre County PA absentee ballot had quite a few local initiatives on it that I had no clue about. And also didn't give me enough information to make any kind of informed vote on them. So apparently Centre County wants to improve it's water supply... fine by me.
They really should tailor absentee ballots to the people who they are sending them to. I have no clue or care about what is happening in PA nor do I plan on moving back.
Got my first ever Canadian driver's license last week as well.
I should have photographed the ballot and posted it here but it's too late now.
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#363085 - 09/30/08 10:23 AM
Re: Electoral Vote Projections
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Porn Jesus
Registered: 01/30/08
Posts: 7599
Loc: a site known for its tolerance...
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Who do you support in our election, conq? I think the Conservatives are headed to a majority. I live in a strong NDP riding. I will be voting Marijuana Party yet again...
_________________________
"I'll never forget the moment during the lovely Alyssa Allure's scene in 'American Bukkake' where the fellow got out of his wheel chair to ejaculate on her face. It was grotesque but had a certain frisson." -Sock
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#363086 - 09/30/08 10:30 AM
Re: Electoral Vote Projections
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Porn Jesus
Registered: 11/27/07
Posts: 4795
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Tatty: I have to admit my total ignorance here. I have no idea how Canadian politics works. I grew up in the states and I don't really know how the Canadian political system works and thusly I don't ever vote in Canada because I don't think my decisions will benefit anybody. If you feel like schooling me please do so. I would appreciate it. Otherwise I don't vote in Canada. I have dual citizenship, just to make that clear. Quote:
Who do you support in our election, conq? I think the Conservatives are headed to a majority. I live in a strong NDP riding. I will be voting Marijuana Party yet again...
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#363089 - 10/03/08 09:51 PM
Re: Electoral Vote Projections
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Porn Jesus
Registered: 01/07/06
Posts: 4268
Loc: Portland
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Jim, there's a whole bunch of projections here:
http://3bluedudes.com/ProjectDatabase.htm
And they all are using a substantially different methodology than you.
Also:
"ST. LOUIS, Missouri (CNN) -- Polls in five crucial battleground states in the race for the White House released Wednesday suggest that Sen. Barack Obama is making some major gains.
Sen. Barack Obama has gained ground in key toss-up states, polls show.
The CNN/Time Magazine/Opinion Research Corp. polls of likely voters in Florida, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada and Virginia suggest a shift toward the Democratic presidential nominee.
In Florida, the state that decided the 2000 presidential election, 51 percent of likely voters say Obama, D-Illinois, is their choice for president, with 47 percent backing Republican presidential nominee John McCain.
The last CNN poll taken in Florida two weeks ago showed the race for the state's 27 electoral votes tied at 48 percent apiece among registered voters.
A new CNN poll of polls in Florida, also out Wednesday, has Obama leading McCain by 5 points. The CNN poll of polls is an average of the new CNN poll and other new state polls."
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/01/battleground.polls/
Unsticky Florida from Red to Blue?
_________________________
"My people (the real Americans- descended from the original Angle-Saxon pioneers)"-Coke S.
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#363090 - 10/04/08 03:37 PM
Re: Electoral Vote Projections
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Cool. But a couple of things:
First, the election is still a month away, and as Harold Wilson noted "A week is a long time in politics."
Second, I see that your source is website called "3 Blue Dudes." No offense, but with a name like that, I have a pretty good idea which way they're going. 
BTW: Got any projections of your own?
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#363091 - 10/04/08 04:43 PM
Re: Electoral Vote Projections
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Porn Jesus
Registered: 01/07/06
Posts: 4268
Loc: Portland
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They include "some" right-leaning projections as indicated by the "R". I'm unsure if there's so few of these due to bias on their part or a deficit of right-leaning sites with projections. Their may be more left-leaning than right-leaning sites on the Internets*, and/or some right-leaning sites may not be posting projections because they're feeling pessimistic and don't won't to memorialize what could be another bad year for the R's.
No, Jim, no projections of my own. I feel that I spend a little too much time obsessing about politics as it is without firing up a spreadsheet and monitoring all of the polls (not an indictment of you doing the same, and look forward to your updates as E-day approaches).
*-It's safe to say that the Internets lean left as the average Internet user is younger and better-educated than that of the non-Internet user, especially among those who would create their own site or blog.
_________________________
"My people (the real Americans- descended from the original Angle-Saxon pioneers)"-Coke S.
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#363092 - 10/04/08 05:10 PM
Re: Electoral Vote Projections
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Quote:
not an indictment of you doing the same
Not taken as such, Gunker. At least, not from you. You actually post about other shit, including Porn (where I generally agree with you.)
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#363094 - 10/10/08 11:18 PM
Re: Electoral Vote Projections
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Quote:
Nathaniel Read Silver (b. 1978, East Lansing, Michigan; now residing in Chicago, Illinois) is Managing Partner of Baseball Prospectus. He is best known for inventing PECOTA, a system for forecasting the performance and career development of Major League Baseball players. In 2007 he began to publish analyses and predictions of U.S. presidential primaries and the general election, initially under the pseudonym "Poblano" and later under his own name.
IIRC, Olbermann started as a sports reporter as well.
Good night, G.
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#363095 - 10/11/08 10:04 AM
Re: Electoral Vote Projections
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Quote:
anyway if Obama won the elections, the result is gonna be
and if McCain wins the elections, the result is gonna be
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#363098 - 10/18/08 09:04 PM
Re: Electoral Vote Projections
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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#363099 - 10/18/08 09:07 PM
Re: Electoral Vote Projections
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Porn Jesus
Registered: 01/07/06
Posts: 4268
Loc: Portland
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Alas, Obama's heel was also dipped...
_________________________
"My people (the real Americans- descended from the original Angle-Saxon pioneers)"-Coke S.
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#363100 - 10/18/08 09:10 PM
Re: Electoral Vote Projections
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Obama was smart to warn his followers not to get cocky. Unfortunately for him, they don't seem to be listening. That's what happens when you lead an army of sheep.
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#363102 - 11/08/08 09:01 PM
Re: Electoral Vote Projections
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Nah. You'll notice I left a bunch of blue there. BTW: What beer do you recommend with crow? 
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#363106 - 11/14/08 10:40 PM
Re: Electoral Vote Projections
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Porn Icon
Registered: 01/27/06
Posts: 3440
Loc: Jaundice Town
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shit yr right it was weeks ago
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#363108 - 11/15/08 01:55 AM
Re: Electoral Vote Projections
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Quote:
i was too busy "makin' change"
And now you and "Moose" are busy making like Brandon and "Monsieur."
Please.
If you're going to run alts, Nellie, the first thing you should remember is not to have a record of defending each other. Next time, try not to leave a trail when your alt posts via proxy. You slipped up.
You should also try to make your alts funny. Or satirical. Or at least somewhat interesting.
I do know a little bit about this subject.
Instead of being the mangina bleeding, monolithic liberal, you should be more like Gunker. While I disagree with the guy politically, he manages to post about a wealth of other topics, like Porn, sports, food and beer. Speaking of which:
Quote:
BTW, Googling Illinois breweries reveals that the state is in sad shape, beer wise.
I agree, but even here in Brooklyn, with our tradition of brewing, it's an uphill battle.
Promise me you'll add promoting Brew Pubs to the Gunker/Sanders taqueria platform and I might consider voting for you.
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#363109 - 11/15/08 09:29 AM
Re: Electoral Vote Projections
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Porn Icon
Registered: 01/27/06
Posts: 3440
Loc: Jaundice Town
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hahaha
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