Jim, there's a whole bunch of projections here:

http://3bluedudes.com/ProjectDatabase.htm

And they all are using a substantially different methodology than you.



Also:

"ST. LOUIS, Missouri (CNN) -- Polls in five crucial battleground states in the race for the White House released Wednesday suggest that Sen. Barack Obama is making some major gains.

Sen. Barack Obama has gained ground in key toss-up states, polls show.

The CNN/Time Magazine/Opinion Research Corp. polls of likely voters in Florida, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada and Virginia suggest a shift toward the Democratic presidential nominee.

In Florida, the state that decided the 2000 presidential election, 51 percent of likely voters say Obama, D-Illinois, is their choice for president, with 47 percent backing Republican presidential nominee John McCain.

The last CNN poll taken in Florida two weeks ago showed the race for the state's 27 electoral votes tied at 48 percent apiece among registered voters.

A new CNN poll of polls in Florida, also out Wednesday, has Obama leading McCain by 5 points. The CNN poll of polls is an average of the new CNN poll and other new state polls."

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/01/battleground.polls/

Unsticky Florida from Red to Blue?