not only whores but hockey moms lie.

You will grow to love this hockey mom. I'll bet anyone she shoots no one as vice president. She's much better versed in gun safety.

Awesome. She should start on herself.

So, can I get some kind of bet from Elaborator, Gunker and Gian Jerkens regarding the election? You three seem confident, yet resolved.

Too early.

Examining the past few elections:

2004: Bush 286, Kerry 251.
2000: Bush 271, Gore 266.
1996: Clinton 379, Dole 159.
1992: Clinton 370, Bush Sr. 168.

I'm guessing Obama 285, McCain 250 (no idea if these numbers are mathematically possible).

I can tell you those numbers are not possible. It's not a sure thing (what is?) but I'm betting heavily McCain/Palin has this.

You'll get over it- you are used to it.

The trend in recent history is that the surer the Democrats are that their candidate will win the more likely it is that they will fall flat on their face into the only fresh dog turd on the street.

It's still early, but from where I sit, here's the (REVISED*) Electoral College breakdown:






The popular vote will be much closer. Maybe 53-47 McCain. Maybe 52-48.


Again, it's still ~50 days until the election and a lot can change.


*Thanks to XXXBit for catching Wisconsin

And before someone asks, I suppose I should explain how the Electoral College works:

There are a total of 538 Electoral Votes.

Each state has a number of electors equal to that state's representation in Congress. (100 Senators + 435 Representatives = 535.) Additionally, Washington DC has an amount equal to the smallest state (i.e. 3) for a total of 538.

EXAMPLE: Ohio has 2 Senators and 18 Representatives, giving it 20 Electoral Votes.

The minimum any state can have is 3 Electoral Votes, as each state automatically has 2 Senators and at least 1 Representative.

48 States and DC use a winner-take-all system. Maine and Nebraska use a tiered system where a single elector is chosen within each Congressional district and two electors are chosen by statewide popular vote. Wiki

When you vote, you're not voting for a specific candidate. You're actually voting for Electors who are pledged to that candidate. Once in a blue moon, an elector will go off the reservation and vote for someone other than the candidate they're pledged to vote for. But this has never effected the outcome of an election. Wiki

Damn Jim....I was supposed to teach that lesson..(I even have charts and graphs)....oh well....

I am thinking Wisconsin will go in the Obama column.....even though the state is historically blue by less than 1%.....that 1% range has been widening every time....

Oh shit. I had that in the wrong column. Wasn't sufficiently caffienated.

Revised projections above. Thanks, XXXBit. (And charts and graphs are always welcome.)

AP poll: Whites help McCain to slim lead

Working-class and suburban whites give GOP candidate lead over Obama


WASHINGTON - An overwhelming advantage in experience and lopsided support from working-class and suburban whites have lifted Republican John McCain to a slender lead over Barack Obama less than two months from Election Day, a poll on the presidential race said Friday.

The Arizona senator has a 13-percentage-point lead over his Democratic rival both with men and senior citizens, and a 23-point advantage among rural residents, according to the Associated Press-GfK Poll of likely voters. He's also doing better than Obama at consolidating support from party loyalists: 94 percent of Republicans back McCain, while 83 percent of Democrats prefer the Illinois senator...

The poll is in line with others showing that in the days since both parties picked vice presidential candidates and held their conventions, Republicans have gained momentum and erased a modest lead Obama held most of the summer. McCain leads Obama among likely voters, 48 percent to 44 percent, according to the AP-GfK Poll.

"My heart sort of runs with McCain and my mind probably tends to run toward Obama," said David Scorup, 58, a county government official in Othello, Wash. "I think I resonate more with McCain."

The poll suggests that perceived inexperience is more of a problem at the top of the Democratic ticket than in the No. 2 spot for Republicans.

Eighty percent say McCain, with nearly three decades in Congress, has the right experience to be president. Just 46 percent say Obama, now in his fourth year in the Senate, is experienced enough.

Fully 47 percent say Obama lacks the proper experience — an even worse reading than the 36 percent who had the same criticism about McCain running mate Sarah Palin, serving her second year as Alaska governor after being a small-town mayor.

"This is his fourth year in the Senate, and two of those four years he spent campaigning for president," said Arthur Koch, 63, an undecided voter from Wallington, N.J. "I'm not too comfortable with that..."

Seven in 10 said Palin made the right decision in becoming McCain's running mate, despite the demands of a family whose five children include a pregnant, unmarried teenage daughter and an infant with Down syndrome. Men were slightly likelier than women to back her choice, and even Obama supporters were split closely over whether she did the proper thing...

McCain leads Obama by 55 percent to 37 percent among whites. That includes margins of 24 points with suburban whites and 26 points with whites who haven't finished college, plus similar advantages with white men and married whites.

The poll finds that despite Democratic attempts to tie McCain to the profoundly unpopular Bush, half say they believe the Arizonan would chart a different course — including a slight majority of independents, a pivotal bloc of voters. In addition, although slightly more call themselves Democrats than Republicans, conservatives have a huge 40 percent to 20 percent edge over liberals...

Though Obama led among those who said values were more important than experience, respondents gave a 9-point edge to McCain as the candidate whose values and principles are similar to theirs. He had an 8-point edge over whom people agreed with on issues.

In another sign of recent GOP gains, people said they preferred a Democratic to a Republican-run Congress, 46 percent to 41 percent. Several surveys earlier this year gave Democrats a wider edge.


MSNBC

Boston Herald on the same poll:

• McCain leading Obama 48 to 44 percent overall
• Obama up by 5 points with women, but McCain ahead by 12 points among white women.
• Sarah Palin ranked higher, at 42 percent, than either McCain or Obama when white women were asked which candidate shares their values and principles “a lot.”

Also:

Yesterday’s Gallup daily poll puts McCain up 48 percent to 45 percent over Obama among registered voters.

Yesterday’s Rasmussen daily poll also shows McCain up by 3 points.

School House Rock explains the electoral college

Schoolhouse Rock Kicks Ass.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h1Z5vzp-Ti8

"from where you sit?" hahaha where did you get that chart jimbo? it is completely ignoring state by state tracking. You Republicans are the ones who are "expecting" this. You listen too much to the Rovian Math and are forgetting the ground game and the fact that Obama 08 is taking it on in all states while McCaine 08 is afraid to let him seperate from his "Soul Mate" Palin for a number of reasons which amusingly enough include the fact that she is the one finally bringing crowds to the events.

Republicans (at least the ones who are still identifying themselves as such and not as Libertarians...or the ones on the Porno-Formo boards that just want to get along with everybody) are completely at the point where they feel they deserve to Rule. Give them enough tax cuts and they will believe anything ... even that a religious wingnut dumbcunt would be allowed to be a pretzel away from the white house.

but hey...jimbo "doesn't think he is going to die" hahaha.


(eat yr broccoli they all can't be Hot Pocket Threads)

It's my own math, eblab.

Have you got your own numbers?

Anything of substance to contribute to the conversation?

Form a sentence without using the belabored word "Rovian?"

Can you do anything besides say "hahaha" and stick your tongue out like a seven year old girl?

No?

Then pipe down, pipsqueak. You're only slightly less embarrassing than Gonzo420.

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It's my own math, eblab.

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exactly... use yr OCD skills to throw together some wiki bullshit thing explaining the electoral college while throwing some dumbass chart that completely ignores the true state by state polling as far as what states are vulnerable in 08 and the amount of newly registered voters AND the money raising difference...

...then start projecting and hurling insults. haha i laugh at you because you are so amazingly predictable.

Have a good day jimbo.

okay jimbo...whatever you say...not going to play yr game...

BUT if you think i changed my avatar pic because of you? haha you are hilarious. I change my avatar often. Maybe you can do an OCD Spreadsheet comparing my changes and come up with some retarded reason why i did it sooner or something and take credit.

Have at it.

John McCaine must release ALL of his health records

I know we have Jimbo on record as thinking McCaine won't die in office but I think a little more assurance is in order if McSame is going to pick a woefully unready religio-wingnut as his successor.

So putting forth a projection of how the electoral vote is going to play out is now a manifestation of OCD?

Really?

Then I suppose your pal Gunker has it too. What about XXXBit? She made charts and graphs. Do we all have OCD, princess?

Or is it simply that you've got nothing.

And, yeah, I know you went Heidi over the avatar jabs. You always get flustered when I take a crack at you. Just as you perpetually whine at me when somebody rates your threads one-star. And before you do it again:

He's gonna win with his newest video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MaP9eiWuX3s

McCain is going to win because no matter what kind of President he,or Palin should he croak,become....they won't be as bad as O'Carter.

If we all vote, please dont let McCain win....please please please!!

yay!!

McCain Says U.S. Shouldn't Bail Out AIG, Backs Study
http://news.yahoo.com/s/bloomberg/20080916/pl_bloomberg/a39si8zmxj_o

Now, this guy has guts.

Quote:

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Now, this guy has guts.

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AND he has an economic advisor and potential treasury secretary pick who helped start this whole mess

yeah ...um how is that deregulation working out for you?

[mccain08]"John McCaine didn't have the Fed to bail him out over Vietnam...he bailed out himself! ...and yeah P.O.W.!!1! [/mccain08]


our economy is FUCKED!

The frequent use of the term, "AIG bailout" shows just how stupid and uninformed the media is. This is not a bailout. It is an acquisition of AIG for the purpose of selling off its assets in an orderly fashion. AIG won't be around a year from now.

supplementary:

Robin Hayes is mostly famous for making the following statement about the war in Iraq:

Quote:

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"Stability in Iraq ultimately depends on spreading the message of Jesus Christ, the message of peace on earth, good will towards men. Everything depends on everyone learning about the birth of the Savior."[

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Source

Quote:

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I seem to recall that when FDR established the Securities and Exchange Commission to regulate Wall Street, he picked the most rapacious speculator of them all to commence said regulation.

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That was a good move because Kennedy knew all the angles.

Not sure how that addresses the point that McCaine is taking economic advice from a slimey ass crook but...

nice try.

Are you suggesting that Joe Kennedy wasn't a slimey ass crook?

Jim B : King of the Strawmen

How does your evading the question of whether Joe Kennedy was as much of a crook as Gramm make me a strawman?

because who the fuck cares about Joe Kennedy? I already said "yeah he knew the angles" implying that yeah he was a crook but FDR kept him under a tight leash.

Which really has little to do with McCain's Economic Guru Phil Gramm except that Gramm did spearhead the legislation to overthrow the very protections that FDR had initiated for the banking industry leading us to the hellish handbasket we are in now.

P.S. he also brought us ENRON

"Opening up the health insurance market to more vigorous nationwide competition, as we have done over the last decade in banking, would provide more choices of innovative products less burdened by the worst excesses of state-based regulation."

- John McCain

yeah anus...

It's from the current Sept/Oct edition of Contingencies, the magazine of the American Academy of Actuaries.

(cut and pasted that too)

Kos is more of a clearing house that links to major media...it is not the Evil Nazi Group that yr boy O'Reilly wants you to think it is.


It was a very telling quote and I wanted to share it with the wingnuts on here.
I really don't see you contributing anything of value to the debate.

You "really don't see" much of anything, do you? Except perhaps that everyone who disagrees with you is a "wingnut."

And I always thought Kos was more "Commie" than "Nazi." Maybe I'm just not seeing it.

Shhhhh... Don't tell that to Gunker & Bernie.

Quote:

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You "really don't see" much of anything, do you? Except perhaps that everyone who disagrees with you is a "wingnut."

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HAHAHA