I think Nog will make Tim tap. As for Chuck and Shogun. I don't see Shogun coming in as badly prepared as he was for Forrest Griffin. You could tell Rua didn't prepare too well... and despite his poor preparation Forrest barely submitted him in the final round and did it while covered in blood. I think Shogun will wax Chuck. Chuck is on his last beer-gutted legs.
Personally, I would rather see a Rampage/Henderson rematch than watch Forrest Griffin get pummeled.. but what can ya do?