DVD has maybe four years left in it. HD-DVD/Blue Ray etc maybe a few more after that if buyers can stomach cottage cheese close ups and zits the size of dinner plates on their TV.
VoD has been running successfully for ages. Rob's way off the pace. Affiliate programs were great four years ago, but anyone who went to Internext last year (and they were the loneliest four people in the world) would've wept at the state of web affiliate program returns.
In the short term, yeah, VoD has legs, but long term you really want to be thinking less in terms of a whole bunch of web sites pushing crap while you hope your affiliates bring the cash in and more in terms of preparing for IPTV.
Any retail solution--VoD or IPTV--which allows you to cut out duplication, packaging, wholesale and retail should give any porn company a boner. Production companies will become their own online TV stations, opening up entirely new marketing opportunities and customers worldwide with fewer censorship issues.
Rob Black is a niche player. Always has been, always will be. His name closes way more doors than it opens and he only has himself to blame.
The market is fucked right now because studios are still pumping out product into a diminishing market. More potential buyers are just stealing their movies from the web and retailers are charging way too much money per unit versus the wholesale price.
It's the economics of greed in action, and it won't change until the production houses realize they've got a direct route to the customer. If production companies charge fans a realistic amount per download and don't milk people too hard, then the market will always be there.
Once the infrastructure for IPTV is really there, we'll see huge changes in the delivery of porn to the consumer.
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I also am subcribe to postal pornography - CAOH