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#237987 - 04/20/07 08:15 PM The Future of Porn-Valley
vanessa Offline
Internet Tough Guy

Registered: 04/03/07
Posts: 786
Loc: on the dark side of the moon
I figure I can't do much wrong in a monkey cage, so I will post here, should be harmless enough... On the other hand I am becoming a little nervous now that I start visualizing myself inside a monkey cage. With or without monkeys, it's a disturbing thought. Anyway here it comes:


THE FUTURE OF PORN-VALLEY Any parallels with Vegas?

“Before I ever ran a casino or got myself blown up, Ace Rothstein was a hell of a handicapper, I can tell you that. I was so good, that whenever I bet, I could change the odds for every bookmaker in the country. I'm serious. I had it down so cold that I was given paradise on earth.

I was given one of the biggest casinos in Las Vegas to run, the Tangiers by the only kind of guys that can actually get you that kind of money: sixty-two million, seven-hundred thousand dollars. I don't know all the details.

Matter of fact... nobody knew all the details, but it should'a been perfect. I mean, he had me, Nicky Santoro, his best friend, watching his ass and he had Ginger, the woman he loved, on his arm.

But in the end... we fucked it all up. It should'a been so sweet, too. But it turned out to be the last time that street guys like us were ever given anything that fuckin' valuable again.

The town will never be the same. After the Tangiers, the big corporations took it all over. Today it looks like Disneyland. And while the kids play cardboard pirates, Mommy and Daddy drop the house payments and Junior's college money on the poker slots.

In the old days, dealers knew your name, what you drank, what you played. Today, it's like checkin' into an airport. And if you order room service, you're lucky if you get it by Thursday.

Today, it's all gone. You get a whale show up with four million in a suitcase, and some twenty-five-year-old hotel school kid is gonna want his Social Security Number.

After the Teamsters got knocked out of the box, the corporations tore down practically every one of the old casinos. And where did the money come from to rebuild the pyramids? Junk bonds.”



Source: Excerpts from the “Casino” script by Nicholas Pileggi & Martin Scorsese. This image is of a film poster, and the copyright for it is most likely owned by either the publisher of the film or the studio which produced the film in question. It is believed that the use of scaled-down, low-resolution images of film posters to illustrate the film in question or to provide critical analysis of the poster content or artwork on this discussion forum qualifies as fair use under United States copyright law. Any other uses of this image may be copyright infringement.


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#237988 - 04/21/07 02:23 PM Re: The Future of Porn-Valley
ranathan Offline
Bukkake Boy

Registered: 04/02/07
Posts: 705
one of the dumber things i have ever read

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#237989 - 04/21/07 02:33 PM Re: The Future of Porn-Valley
Conky Offline
Porn Jesus

Registered: 11/04/06
Posts: 4203
Loc: Bakersfield Plumbing Supplies ...
There are certain parallels--the buying up of various outfits by LFP--but the porn industry is way more accessible than legal gambling and will be that way until legislation decides otherwise.

Low cost cameras mean that the consumer has become the producer and increasingly is shooting what he or she wants to see, rather than what the market requires. That's why we're seeing wholesale unit prices of six bucks and enough porn released every month to build a new Hoover dam.

Once delivery methods move away from 'hard' to 'soft' and IPTV takes over, things might change. But don't hold your breath.
_________________________
I also am subcribe to postal pornography - CAOH

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#237990 - 04/21/07 06:41 PM Re: The Future of Porn-Valley
vanessa Offline
Internet Tough Guy

Registered: 04/03/07
Posts: 786
Loc: on the dark side of the moon
Quote:

There are certain parallels--the buying up of various outfits by LFP--but the porn industry is way more accessible than legal gambling and will be that way until legislation decides otherwise.

Low cost cameras mean that the consumer has become the producer and increasingly is shooting what he or she wants to see, rather than what the market requires. That's why we're seeing wholesale unit prices of six bucks and enough porn released every month to build a new Hoover dam.

Once delivery methods move away from 'hard' to 'soft' and IPTV takes over, things might change. But don't hold your breath.




Don't ask me why I am doing this. I got home this afternoon from my business class only to read that what I wrote is one "of the dumber things I ever read"... so I had to think about it.

OK, that's a start. I understand that the porn industry is easily accessible. That's why there currently is a flood of product out there, to the great concern of many of you who work in the industry.

But I don't think that the market for porn is fundamentally different from any other industry. You have competing production entities offering product on one side and you have consumers demanding product on the other side. Correct me if I am wrong, but I would estimate that consumer demand has not changed for the worse in recent times. Overall demand for porn should be steady, if not steadily growing.

What has changed is the supply side. There is more supply then ever before, and that traditionally affects a market in the following ways:

- the prices for your product drop
- profits get less, some companies start writing red numbers

What happens from there is different for each company and depends on what adaptive strategy a company chooses. I’ll just theorize on what a company could do:

You could try to lower production costs. Some cost cutting can be legitimate and is a good thing. Get rid of waste, cut non-essential expenses, increase efficiency, etc. If you have already done all that, and you are operating at maximum efficiency but you are still not making profits then you are in trouble.

At that point some companies will use brute force to cut even more costs. That’s when you start compromising on quality, pay talent less, get uglier girls, default on payments, don’t spend money on props, take out of the budget wardrobe, makeup and hair, use the same ugly couch in the same lame apartment again and again, etc… Some people think they can pull it off and still deliver a product that is as good as it used to be. Or that is just good enough. Maybe they think nobody else will notice. Maybe they are the kind of people who really can’t see much of a difference, or they think it doesn’t matter for porn. But consumers know the difference. Your product will be downgraded. Either people are not going to buy it, or they won’t buy it next time, or they will never buy anything from you ever again. It happens gradually, of course. You will start selling fewer units or you will sell them at a lower price, no matter what, your cuts won’t be enough to move back into the profit zone. At that point you are at the mercy of forces beyond your control… you can try to hang in there, start building up debt, and hoping for the best, but probably you are just delaying the inevitable. You will go out of business.

Other companies will develop hopefully more successful adaptive strategies. Maybe you start off-shoring. But chances are that because you are a very small business and not General Motors that this sort of strategy is going to be hit or miss on a project by project basis. It may turn out great one time, only to be your worst nightmare next time. Also, maybe you don’t like to travel much, or you don’t want to make phone calls at 5 in the morning or at midnight to keep up with different time-zones. Maybe you love your own country and want to work with local talent and your friends in the valley…

So what else can a company do? Assuming you are not a major player and you have no way to form alliances with companies that control distribution outlets – what can you do?

You can start putting more thought into competitive differentiation. What can you do to make your product more different from the competition? What is your niche? What is your market segment? What is it that only you can deliver? What is it that you are best at?

If there is nothing at all you can come up with to answer this question and the only thing you can produce is stuff that is not much different from what consumers can shoot at home, then maybe it’s time to look for something different to do, or else get ready for crunchtime.

What is it that the consumer cannot shoot at home? Most guys (outside the valley that is) who watch porn don’t have a girlfriend who wants to be filmed while performing double anal with some strangers from craigslist. Also, the girlfriend is unlikely to invite her girlfriends over so that you can arrange a lesbian orgy, ATM, watersports, gagging or who knows what… I’m not saying it doesn’t happen in private, but isn’t it more convenient to pick up a video from the store after work, or download something rather then arranging for an entire porn shoot? Consumers love convenience. Lastly, how many of the average men out there have girlfriends that look as good or are as hot (and willing) as A-list talent?

Herein lies the answer. The companies that have the hottest looking girls are the ones that are best positioned to survive in the long run. It’s the law of nature. Everybody wants the best looking girl. How do you get better looking girls? Pay more money. Only the biggest companies will be able to afford paying for that kind of talent.

Second in line are those companies that have gifted producers and directors, people with a passion for porn who can create great production value even when they are working with b-talent and smaller budgets. But those companies will be competing against each other and therefore will need to be catering to different niches in the market. Every company will have to be really good at something unique to them.

Last in line are the companies that are trying to do a little bit of everything, and the do-it-yourself outfits. There isn’t much of a future for those. Because you are right, anyone with a camcorder can do it, and will do it just for fun, and it will be impossible for a professional to make a living from that kind of product. It will probably end up for free viewing on www.youtube.com/adult

In the next decades many porn companies will disappear. That doesn’t mean the end of porn, but it would indicate a bit of a restructuring coming up. It means that the most vulnerable of the smaller companies will disappear, some will go bankrupt, others will be bought up, and still others will merge. In the end, a few majors will be left to dominate the industry. Those are going to be corporations – suits making the decisions, clean working conditions, health plans, secure STD screening for all performers, and it’s all going to be connected with other conglomerates and big money. Maybe one day you will have top models doing porn because Gucci is marketing a high-end vibrator in your film. Who knows?

There is a great future for porn. This is just the beginning – unlimited opportunities for growth, combined with an insatiable demand that will never be met. But home-made movies and ugly performers aren’t going to be it! I don’t want to see any more of that ugly shit that is now filling 80% of the shelves.


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#237991 - 04/22/07 03:24 PM Re: The Future of Porn-Valley
Houstondon Offline
AC Cream Wannabe

Registered: 03/11/07
Posts: 451
Loc: Houston
Quote:

At that point some companies will use brute force to cut even more costs. That’s when you start compromising on quality, pay talent less, get uglier girls, default on payments, don’t spend money on props, take out of the budget wardrobe, makeup and hair, use the same ugly couch in the same lame apartment again and again, etc…




While I agree with much of what you wrote (Econ 101), do you really think you needed to say "At that point" considering how long this "point" has been passed by most companies? Just asking...
_________________________
"I'm rich. I'm a strong, trained fighter. I own a gun. And I am completely...fucking ... psychotic." Kurt Lockwood ranting yet again

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#237992 - 04/22/07 03:51 PM Re: The Future of Porn-Valley
Conky Offline
Porn Jesus

Registered: 11/04/06
Posts: 4203
Loc: Bakersfield Plumbing Supplies ...
One of the main issues is with expectation of profit. The business has boomed over the last two decades and right down the line from production house, producer, talent, wholesale and retail, everyone expects to earn the same or more than they did last quarter.

When profits dip, companies chase those dollars in unimaginative ways, such as putting out more product to retain shelf space at a retail level. Streamlining happens, but only in the bigger companies. Since there are so many independent producers touting product from company to company, cost-cutting isn't an option for them.

The cheapest way of shooting is gonzo, so we see a proliferation of gonzo titles, each one pushing the envelope to try and make a name and generate sales. As the scenes get harder, talent demands more money. Producers accede to this because they know that hiring cheaper girls means hiring uglier girls which in turn impacts sales.

The whole thing is a self-perpetuating crap fest, but the problem remains that what was once an exclusive industry has become far too accessible to anyone with a camera. You mention GM in your reply. Consider the impact on domestic car sales if you or I could build the latest GM or Ford in our garage with no real skills or knowledge? And I'm not talking about kit cars here, but something which has all the hallmarks of a production line car.

The auto industry would be in turmoil.
_________________________
I also am subcribe to postal pornography - CAOH

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#237993 - 04/22/07 04:49 PM Re: The Future of Porn-Valley
ranathan Offline
Bukkake Boy

Registered: 04/02/07
Posts: 705
Don't ask me why I am doing this. I got home this afternoon from my business class only to read that what I wrote is one "of the dumber things I ever read"...

thats because you didnt write anything, you qouted casino and then made a bad comparison and provided no arguement

therefore one the dumber things i have ever read

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#237994 - 04/22/07 04:49 PM Re: The Future of Porn-Valley
vanessa Offline
Internet Tough Guy

Registered: 04/03/07
Posts: 786
Loc: on the dark side of the moon
Right, what I am saying is that there is too much low end product, and that no professional will be able to make a living from that for much longer. It's amateur porn (the equivalent of the kit car you mention), the sooner you put it up on the net for free download the better, so that it can disappear into oblivion and we can all move on. I feel sorry for everybody who has been making a living from it in the past - it just won't be happening any more. Once we are through this painful period, hopefully we will be making better cars again, I mean better porn, not cars.

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#237995 - 04/22/07 04:52 PM Re: The Future of Porn-Valley
vanessa Offline
Internet Tough Guy

Registered: 04/03/07
Posts: 786
Loc: on the dark side of the moon
Quote:

Don't ask me why I am doing this. I got home this afternoon from my business class only to read that what I wrote is one "of the dumber things I ever read"...

thats because you didnt write anything, you qouted casino and then made a bad comparison and provided no arguement therefore one the dumber things i have ever read





lol, no hard feelings on my end. Thanks for letting me know.

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#237996 - 04/22/07 05:10 PM Re: The Future of Porn-Valley
ranathan Offline
Bukkake Boy

Registered: 04/02/07
Posts: 705
friends till the end vanesssa?

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