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I've begun to have serious doubts about the orbiter program as it's 1970's technology still has about a 1% failure rate.



70s tech isn't bad, as long as it works. I don't think the age of the technology had anything to do with either failure.

As for 1%: a 1% failure is not considered that bad in the launcher business. At the time of the first Shuttle launch the Air Force failure rate was 1% on the solid rockets alone (and there are two on a Shuttle). At this point it makes more sense to design with that 1% as a reality rather than ignore it or believe you'll reduced it to epsilon with heroic engineering somehow. In other words there comes a time when it's more realistic and cost-effective to design escape systems than try for unrealistic reliability in the main system.

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but what's the point sending up astronauts right now anyway?



I've wondered for a while why it is that a typical flight might have 1-2 "mission specialists" yet a total of 7 crewmembers - what are are the others doing? Joyriding like Senator Glenn?

There is value in having technicians in orbit for repair missions. I'm told that on every repair mission thus far plan A has not worked in some way and that the job was eventually accomplished by methods devised on the spot, often improvised with tools or equipment that happened to be in the cabin. There is the one famous incident where the satellite to be repaired was tumbling slowly and wouldn't stop, and an astronaut simply got on the end of the Shuttle's arm and grabbed the satellite to stop it (this was NOT in the pre-flight plan!). Most of the time it goes as planned but there has always been something unexpected, however minor, that would have caused a robotic repair to fail.

The Shuttle already launches itself and can do the entire landing sequence except lowering the wheels (this exception is a political decision, not technical). Right now it would seem future launchers should need no more than 3 passengers spaces for a day or two, certainly not the 10+ days with 7 crew the Shuttle can do. On a new system on the rare occasions that you need a big party or a long dwell time you can do multiple launches, but I bet they miraculously find 3 days with 3 crew just fine if getting more took extra effort.

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Space is just the big Nothing at this point, we've got too many problems on Earth.



Most people find long-range weather forecasts handy, as well as other things impractical without orbital technology.
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"If they can't picture me with a knife, forcing them to strip in an alley, I don't want any part of it. It's humiliating." - windsock